World League Simulation
From Tickipedia
The simulations showed some interesting features. Anu_ was the winner in 5 of the simulations, but was in the bottom 2, and hence relegated to the B division, in 6 of the simulations. The most likely winner was deveric, in 7 of the simulations, though he was relagated in 2 and tied for relagation in 1. The player most likely to be relagated was PapiXulu, 10 times, though Papi won 2 of the simulations. All players were relegated in at least 2 simulations (deveric and daedin were the least likely), and all but cristiano won at least one simulation. Further results from the simulations may be forthcoming
Point results for simulations 1 through 20 are shown below:
| Points | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anu_ | 39.5 | 26 | 39 | 41.5 | 38 | 33.5 | 22.5 | 31 | 38.5 | 26.5 | 20 | 33 | 25.5 | 33.5 | 28.5 | 26 | 40 | 27 | 24 | 37.5 |
| deveric | 38 | 37 | 31 | 34 | 31 | 27 | 37 | 42 | 41 | 49.5 | 29 | 40.5 | 34 | 33 | 44 | 37.5 | 24 | 44.5 | 40 | 25.5 |
| daedin | 22.5 | 35.5 | 35.5 | 36 | 30 | 37 | 37.5 | 31 | 28 | 33.5 | 27 | 36 | 34 | 33.5 | 32 | 37 | 29 | 25 | 36 | 25.5 |
| Goscha | 36 | 30.5 | 37 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 30.5 | 19.5 | 34.5 | 33 | 32 | 30 | 28 | 37.5 | 13 | 23.5 | 39 | 44 | 31.5 | 23 |
| Schwen | 31.5 | 41 | 27 | 23 | 33 | 26.5 | 33.5 | 31.5 | 35 | 28.5 | 30 | 28 | 37 | 30 | 29.5 | 28 | 34.5 | 29 | 28 | 28.5 |
| Zimo | 32 | 29.5 | 35 | 29.5 | 26.5 | 32 | 32 | 35 | 36.5 | 34.5 | 37.5 | 22.5 | 36.5 | 26 | 33.5 | 41.5 | 30 | 25 | 28.5 | 32.5 |
| PapiXulu | 24.5 | 24.5 | 26 | 24 | 29.5 | 32 | 24 | 38.5 | 17.5 | 20.5 | 44 | 31.5 | 25.5 | 31 | 33.5 | 40 | 27.5 | 29.5 | 28.5 | 43 |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | 28 | 28 | 21.5 | 33 | 32 | 31 | 35 | 23.5 | 21 | 26 | 32.5 | 30.5 | 31.5 | 27.5 | 38 | 18.5 | 28 | 28 | 35.5 | 36.5 |
Placings for simulations 1 through 20:
| Place | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anu_ | 1 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 5.5 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 7.5 | 2.5 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 2 |
| deveric | 2 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 3.5 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6.5 |
| daedin | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 5.5 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 7.5 | 2 | 6.5 |
| Goscha | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 3.5 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| Schwen | 5 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 5 |
| Zimo | 4 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 4.5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 3.5 | 1 | 4 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 4 |
| PapiXulu | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 4.5 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 7.5 | 5 | 3.5 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | 6 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 3.5 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
Odds of winning were calculated using head to head, and record vs those in divisions A through C. Head to head was altered to deal with few encounters by adding 5 wins, 5 losses and a tie. Formula for odds was based on the following, saved as percentages:
- HHA: Your head to head record against the opponent
- HHB: Your opponent's head to head record against you
- DivA: Your record against those in Div A-C
- DivB: Your opponent's record against those in Div A-C
Using the formula (HHA+DivA)/(HHA+HHB+DivA+DivB)
And now for a look at how you would do, based on the number of points you had. I only included the placings for 7&8 (relegation) and 1&2 (promotion), and marked the rest with X's. Some random observations:
- Goscha had the lowest score with 13, by losing 6 matches and tying one.
- Goscha also had a remarkable second place, scoring 44 points and losing to deveric's 44.5
- deveric had the highest score, a remarkable 49.5 out of 63 possible points.
- his scores were 6-1 (4 times), 5-2, 4-3 and 3.5-3.5 to Zimo
- The formula I used was designed to give ties 2.42% of the time, which was the ratio in the matches
- tied games happened 90 times out of 3,920 simulated games
- Tied matches happened 25 times out of 560 simulated matches
- So if you tie a game, there is a decent chance that you will tie the match
- (remember that in Div A, the people are pretty evenly matched)
- Sweeps occurred 15 times or in 2.7% of the matches
- 6-1 occurred in 13%
- 5-2 occurred in 29%
- 4-3 occurred in 42%
- Remember that the chart below should center around 31.5, since perfect scores are 63 (and 0)
| sim | <20 | 20-22 | 22.5-24.5 | 25-27 | 27.5-29.5 | 30-32 | 32.5-34.5 | 35-37 | 37.5-39.5 | 40-42 | >42 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 8 | 7X | X | X | X | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 19 | 8 | 7XX | X | X2 | 1 | ||||||
| 18 | 87X | XXX | 21 | ||||||||
| 17 | 8 | 7XX | X | X | 2 | 1 | |||||
| 16 | 8 | 7 | X | X | X | X | 21 | ||||
| 15 | 8 | 7X | X | XX | 2 | 1 | |||||
| 14 | 8 | 7 | XX | XX2 | 1 | ||||||
| 13 | 87 | X | X | XX | 21 | ||||||
| 12 | 8 | 7 | XXX | X | 2 | 1 | |||||
| 11 | 8 | 7 | X | XX | X | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 10 | 8 | 7X | X | XX2 | 1 | ||||||
| 9 | 8 | 7 | X | X | XX2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 8 | 8 | 7 | XXX | X | 2 | 1 | |||||
| 7 | 87 | XX | X | X2 | 1 | ||||||
| 6 | 87 | XXX | X2 | 1 | |||||||
| 5 | 8 | 7 | XXXX | 2 | 1 | ||||||
| 4 | 87 | X | XX | XX | 2 | 1 | |||||
| 3 | 8 | 7X | XX | XX2 | 1 | ||||||
| 2 | 8 | 7 | XX | XX | X | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 87 | X | XX | X | 21 |
The moral of the simulation. One season is not a good measure of your true standing in the community. Being better than another player does not guarantee a win, and a couple of anomalous results can shoot you up the ranks (or plunge you down).
